The Other Guys
A vast majority of attention for the NFL off-season has been rightfully directed at top quarterbacks. Tom Brady retired, which ended the speculation regarding him for those of us who believe that he’s actually retired. Where will Aaron Rodgers end up- besides the friendly confines of his darkness retreat? What’s happening with Lamar Jackson? Who will sign Derek Carr now that he forced his way out of a trade situation? Jimmy G even ate up some of the excitement bandwidth to a certain extent; will he end up in Oakland or elsewhere? The QB draft energy has been focused on Bryce Young, CJ Stroud, Will Levis, and Anthony Richardson. The teams most linked with drafting these rookies are the Texans, Colts, and Panthers so they won’t be discussed much here.
We’re going to spend some time today on the Other Guys.
“You thinking what I’m thinking? Aim for the bushes.”
Not those Other Guys. Other Guys qualifying for today’s conversation aren’t diving off multi-story buildings to the tune of the Foo Fighters. We’re interested in quarterbacks who may have a similar story-line to the guys who step in after that tragic and heroic occasion. Slightly unassuming figures who might step in and outperform expectations. We’ll take a look at what might make sense for Sam Darnold, Baker Mayfield, Jameis Winston, and Hendon Hooker. There hasn’t been much buzz on where they’ll end up. Let’s put some attention and spotlight on these gents.
We start with Hendon Hooker.
He’s unique in this bunch as the only rookie; however, he does have some similarities. None of these guys are surefire home runs who have never had down times. On the other hand, none are hopeless write-offs who have never shown potential. Hooker is intriguing because he torched college football defenses for two seasons once he made his way to Knoxville. There are concerns about whether or not his success in Josh Heupel’s scheme will translate to the NFL. Certainly, he won’t be running the same offense, but throwing the football is throwing the football and he can certainly do that at a high level. He will have the benefit of some time acclimating to whatever new scheme he ends up with. He is almost guaranteed to have that built-in learning time thanks, but no thanks to the ACL injury he suffered this past November. He has a lot of desirable physical attributes for projected success at the NFL level. I never pretended to be a scout, so let’s stop there and talk about which teams might make sense as a landing spot.
Certainly, a contending team who needs an immediate starter doesn’t make sense. He won’t be fit to step in and play on day one. Every player is somewhat unique in their timeline returning from injury; so, there’s really no saying exactly when he’ll be ready for action. It may make sense for teams who are in full rebuild mode like the Texans, but I just don’t see them passing on the opportunity to take one of the quarterbacks projected to be drafted in the first round. There are two teams that make the most sense to me. They’re in similar situations with ascending rosters, veteran quarterbacks, and ample draft capital. Both the Lions and Seahawks will likely use the majority of their early picks to bolster their defenses. Geno Smith and Jared Goff were impressive enough last year to earn the benefit of the doubt as 2023 starters; however, you wouldn’t find either in a consensus top-10 list of quarterbacks. They’re good, but they’re not irreplaceable. Bringing in a QB like Hooker with the plan being for him to sit for a year or two could be really beneficial. It isn’t an immediate threat to either current starter so those weird dynamics wouldn’t be at play. Either team would have brought in a future option that could take the reins for a foreseeable contender when both the roster and QB have matured to a sufficient level to make a run.
Outside contenders could be the Panthers and Raiders. If either of these teams bring in a vet, bridge-type QB, Hooker could get picked as the future. The Washington Commanders are another outside team. If they don’t end up with Derek Carr, what do they do? Sam Howell may get a chance in his second year. Perhaps they give Howell his live try-out and bring Hooker in as the next candidate in case Howell doesn’t work out. They did draft Robert Griffin and Kirk Cousins in the same year about a decade ago. That seemed crazy, but both players ended up on the field and made significant splashes in the league. Insert any other NFC South team ... meh, maybe. Would the Cowboys, Broncos, or Vikings look to add some future potential into their drafts; it wouldn’t be too crazy. Any which way it shakes out, I think Hendon Hooker will be a very interesting case: where he ends up, what that team’s vision is, and how it eventually manifests.
We’ll move next to one of the most forgotten men in the league: Jameis Winston
Jameis led the Seminoles to a National Championship; he was the #1 overall pick; he had three seasons with over 4,000 yards including one over 5,000. He also had a 30 interception season and essentially lost his starting job with two different teams. Clearly he’s more than proficient as a passer; it’s the other stuff for this other guy that makes him an enigma. Are there teams who believe in him? Are there teams who are willing to give him a chance at resurrecting his career? Operating under the presumption that at least one exists for either of those questions, let’s dive in.
I believe there are two types of teams who might be interested:
1. Teams who are riding the struggle bus and figure why not give him a shot? If it works out, that’s one piece solved and they can move forward. If it blows up, they were going to be picking high in 2024 anyways.
2. Teams with rosters they believe they can contend with, but have questions at the QB spot.
Teams that may be on that struggle bus this year are the Saints (ironically), the Bucs, the Falcons, and the Cardinals. There are more teams who might have a tough 2023, but either already have their starter or are likely to snatch a top QB in the draft. Obviously, Jameis is currently in New Orleans, but that hasn’t been rosy and I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he isn’t there next year. Verdict – unlikely to be eating W’s near the French Quarter. Tom Brady retired, but the Bucs have to eat a ton of dead cap this year or spread it out over a few years. Their roster isn’t barren by any stretch, but they seem to have reached the end of their window and a refresh is in order. Also, Jameis was already in Tampa for the first five years of his career. Verdict – whatever small amounts of money Tampa is able to spend this year won’t end up in Winston’s account. The Falcons are interesting. They have some pieces, but they need some help. Atlanta isn’t in the same ‘end of a long competitive road’ as Tampa or New Orleans; they’re either ascending or middling. Desmond Ridder could be the guy, but he didn’t blow anyone away as a rookie last year- tough to say if they’d have any interest in firing on Jameis as they don’t seem as close to needing to rebuild as other NFC South compadres. Verdict – not hotlanta. Moving West, the Cardinals have Kyler Murray, but he tore his ACL last season and probably won’t be all systems go for week one. He’s also a player who relies on his ultra-dynamic mobility- someone who being ‘fully healthy’ makes a huge difference for. Do they go full tank mode in 2023 with one of their existing backups or do they throw some spice in the pot with an interesting vet? Their new coach made it clear he plans to win, but throwing 2023 in the dumpster could be the best path. It could result in an explosive 2024 and on with a fully healthy Kyler and the benefit of two rich draft classes, consecutively. Jameis could interfere if he comes in and wins enough to bring them to the middle of the pack.
The Titans, Jets, Panthers, and Ravens all believe they can contend, but have questions behind center. For the Titans, Tannehill and Willis aren’t awe inspiring. The former is competent, the latter struggled mightily as a rookie, but could figure it out in year two. Does a QB like Jameis come in and give them what they need to get back to the the point where they were the #1 seed in the AFC? I don’t see the … we’ll call it “high variance” ... suiting Mike Vrabel. I haven’t read anything at all tying Jameis to the Jets; only Rodgers, Jackson, and Carr. Perhaps they have no interest. If they aren’t able to land one of those stars, where do they turn? Jameis can be a prolific passer, but maybe his propensity for turnovers is too familiar to Zach Wilson’s for their liking. Verdict – probably not, but the Jets could provide a really interesting and dynamic pairing. Down in Carolina, the Panthers have questions at quarterback. Their roster has young talent; they aren’t in a bad spot. I don’t think they’re a likely spot for Jameis for two reasons: one, the prevailing winds tie the Panthers and Frank Reich to drafting a top rookie and, two, Jameis has already played for two NFC South teams- what are we doing here? There is no mutual exclusivity or prohibition for trying to hit for the NFC South cycle, but who does that? Who throws a shoe, honestly? The Ravens shouldn’t have any question at QB if they’re able to sign Lamar Jackson. That ‘if’ has existed for over two years at this point, so it’s safe to say there’s uncertainty. Todd Monken was just hired as the Raven’s Offensive Coordinator. That’s the same Todd Monken who was Winston’s OC in Tampa Bay from 2016-2018. Whether that greases the skids or serves as a figurative Berlin Wall is not for me to say. What’s undeniable, is that they are very familiar with each other and had some passing success before. This would be an interesting option. Verdict – possible … maybe … so, you’re saying there’s a chance. I would throw a bone in for the Colts, but they’re scarred from several instances of trying to make veteran options work. If they bring in a vet, I doubt it will be as the starter, but rather as a bridge/mentor to whichever rookie they take – think ‘lower variance’ options such as Andy Dalton or Jacoby Brisset.
Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold
They’re not the same person. For the sake of being other guys, they are in similar boats. The only difference between their situations is that after both starting the 2022 season as castoffs in Carolina, Baker was cast off again and picked up by the Rams. Sean McVay may have liked what he saw enough to keep Mayfield around as either the backup or successor to Matthew Stafford. Stafford isn’t particularly old by today’s QB standards, but he has been bruised and battered like a quarterback subjected to yesteryear’s rules and playing style. So, maybe Baker stays there. Likewise, maybe Darnold did enough last year to convince the Panthers and Frank Reich to keep him around. Weird world spin cycle option: Darnold returns to LA, his college home, as a Ram.
Back to putting Mayfield and Darnold in the same boat, if they have a chance at starting, I see them with a team falling under the Jameis Winston category 1 depiction: the struggle bus. I hate to describe Tampa Bay and New Orleans in this way. They are recently competitive, proud franchises; however, with Tom Brady and Drew Brees no longer around and their current financial situations, they would both be wise to use 2023 to reset. Clear the books, trade off aging assets for picks or promising youth, and attempt to build around a young nucleus. To continue pushing to get to the top given their current circumstances will end in mediocrity at best and keep their financials strapped going forward. Agree or disagree, that’s my opinion. Mayfield or Darnold could come in and serve as a bridge. Maybe they figure it out, in what would likely be their final opportunities, and demonstrate some staying power. If not, the losses stack up and eyes get wide for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. The sun will rise in 2024 and it could be brilliant and beautiful. Red sky at night, sailor’s delight. Red sky in morning, sailor take warning. Speaking of red, maybe the Arizona Cardinals snatch up one of these guys under the same premise.
Just as in the movie, I’ll be rooting for the Other Guys. Everyone likes a redemption story.